Ok follow along!
- Urea Chart is price. Looks like historic highs there.
- Natural Gas Chart is price. Does not look close to highs . Neutral trading sideways
- Urea Ending Inventory. If you are a farmer, bad news. Down and trending down. That means higher price. Just like it meanshigh price for your grain. Low ending inventory/high prices
My understanding of the world fert market is that North American use has flattened out (stopped growing) but the rest of the world's demand continues to grow. Not at breakneck spead, but steady. (I'll have to find a chart)
Demand drive price increases have legs to them. Its a market that goes up quick and stays there for awhile. They stay high even after demand drops off. Speculators start to move in and suppliers tend to drop prices slowly. This type of demand driven price increases also tend to push price to high, but people are willing to pay the price, BECAUSE THEY NEED IT. So maybe that's not to high a price?
I just threw in the KCL chart (potash price)to show the nasty increases there. That looks like double up to me. And DAP is phosphate again healthy increases in price
