Sunday, December 30, 2007

Wind Turbines.

Midwest farmers are tilting at wind turbines - Los Angeles Times



I drove through the St. Leon wind turbine farm this weekend. (My son was playing hockey in Morden. His team finished with a bronze) Very impressive, I have not been there in three or so years.



We are considering putting something up at the farm, but we lack the capital (so far).



According to a spread sheet I downloaded our farm's best option would be to wind generate about 1/2 our power need.

I will post the address but I had to adjust my browser to let them track some of my address data to access the site. It's an interesting tool

http://www.smallwindenergy.ca/calculator/wind.php?turbine=4&page=update&costkwh=0.0863&outofrange=0&wind=6&wind_mini=5&wind_small=5.5&wind_medium=5.5&wind_large=5.5&type=1kW

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

What's driving fertilizer price? It does not look to be high natural gas


Ok follow along!
  • Urea Chart is price. Looks like historic highs there.
  • Natural Gas Chart is price. Does not look close to highs . Neutral trading sideways
  • Urea Ending Inventory. If you are a farmer, bad news. Down and trending down. That means higher price. Just like it meanshigh price for your grain. Low ending inventory/high prices




    My understanding of the world fert market is that North American use has flattened out (stopped growing) but the rest of the world's demand continues to grow. Not at breakneck spead, but steady. (I'll have to find a chart)

Demand drive price increases have legs to them. Its a market that goes up quick and stays there for awhile. They stay high even after demand drops off. Speculators start to move in and suppliers tend to drop prices slowly. This type of demand driven price increases also tend to push price to high, but people are willing to pay the price, BECAUSE THEY NEED IT. So maybe that's not to high a price?

I just threw in the KCL chart (potash price)to show the nasty increases there. That looks like double up to me. And DAP is phosphate again healthy increases in price

PotashCorp - Markets Map - Cool World Ag Map

PotashCorp - Investors - Markets Information - World Markets Map

The post is PotashCorp's webpage. Of course very investor oriented. PotashCorp has no problems with high fertilizer prices. I guess why should they? The site is well put together and I like the posted map. Download it and check out various countries ag output. I posted this at least once on my old blog. I still get a kick out of it

Enjoy

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Pharming: Pharmaceutical Farming


David Adam on pharmaceutical farming Special reports Guardian Unlimited

This has been kicking around for a while on the edges of GMO tech. There is a lot of concern about this stuff "getting out" of the labs and greenhouses. The developers want to "get out" and start producing the beneficial products from there research. And on the other side "getting out" means contamination of the food chain.


I love a good controversy!!


The post is a good balanced article. I really liked the authors unbiased presentation of the story. As usual you have to do a bit of research to see where things really are. I wonder how wide spread this type of production really is in the world. The post states that things have stalled as major pharma firms have no interest and anti GM groups stepped up the protests. Then he states areas where this is going on. The barley in Finland for example(?) I'd bet those into this will not do a lot of advertising.


The "yuk" factor gets to me when someone mentions putting human genes in anything. I don't know it's kind of creepy. The picture is barley with a human gene added. YUK

Friday, December 14, 2007

Canola Meal as a Bio-Herbicide; And You Thought Was All Like CSI

http://ejournal.sinica.edu.tw/bbas/content/1997/2/bot382-10.pdf

Last night I was putting the finishing touches on a proposal for the Saskatchewan Canola Development Commission. (SCDC) and I had a brilliant idea. Hey! Why not do another trial!

We are going to propose a trial using canola meal as a bio-herbicide. You know how problems can occur in heavy trash or on the swath rows the year after canola. Cereals will have inhibited germination in these areas. There are a variety of chemicals in canola. Glucosinolates in the canola residue could be inhibiting the cereal germination.

It's not a real leap to think this may work as a weed control agent. In fact work has been done on this before. And I'm going to take a shot at it to

The post is some work done in 1997 using Aqueous extract from various crops to see if they work as weed control agent.

I'm going to read this and cite it as background for my study. And yes I bet you thought it was like CSI all the time at the research farm. Hot guys and girls in clean labs driving around in Hummers wearing tight pants. I'm parkin' the Hummer. opening a MGD and readin' a ten year old report about petri dishes. Baby life is good!!

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Globalization Spin: Ag-Profs view on the benefits of Globilization for North American Agriculture

Streaming Digital Media dot Com

I posted this for the audio/video on globalization and North American agriculture, but the whole program sounds pretty good.

The Ag-professor has an interesting view on how the developing markets for our production should be approached. He thinks we will have to have more "give" meaning lowering our trade tariff and reducing our subsidies to fully utilize these growing markets. He's in the camp that has concerns about "using food for fuel"

I liked the interview. Both the interview(er) and the the Prof did their jobs well. She asked good probing questions and he seemed to give straight forward answers and gave a clear view of his theories.

I don't really have a opinion on globalization and agriculture, whether it's good or bad. I'm guessing in the end some middle ground will be found.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Texas Moisture Conditions: I love a good map

I just like this map. Really well done and easy to follow. It does look like growing conditions in Texas are good (maybe a little wet(?)

Wheat Streek Mosaic; A resistant variety of wheat on the horizon,


I've seen wheat streak mosaic really damage crops. Usually a rotation has been tight with sometimes winter wheat in the mix. The tight rotations leave green material for the "bug" (at the right) to carry the disease pathogen to the host wheat crop. This disease really "buggers" the field and it hangs around for an extended period. If the fellows in the posted article are on to something it will be an important weapon to use against a nasty disease

Sunday, December 9, 2007

NASA Picture of the Sahara

Wow!! That's a big desert and it's growing. Take a look at the remaining green (arable land) at the mouth of the Nile.

NASA Picture of Irrigation Pivots in Kansas


I just thought this was cool and it would brighten up the blog and it's about agriculture(?)

Good Beef Industry News Over A Rum And Coke

I was at a university friend's 50th birthday party last night. I had a very positive conversation with a cattleman over a rum and coke.

This man and his son are custom feeding cattle. They have 800 animals (the numbers may be a little fussy) they are backgrounding. They do whatever needs to be done to add weight over the winter. These two feed in the most cost effective way they can for the beef owner. I'm not a livestock man, he mentioned some systems he used, but it didn't register with me. Then in the spring they grass finish them on pasture that the family owns. The cattle are marketed wherever the best returns are to be had. There are no preset buyers for the beef. According to him if the dollar gets back to 90 cents a profit will be turned by the cattle owner. This is the second year the operation has been in place and the gentleman I talked to sound like he will have no problem keeping it running.

This isn't a new business model by any means. The things I found interesting are it's just getting started at a time when the cattle industry looks pretty bleak, they grass finish and the son has decided (he's mid 20's) this is what he wants to do for a living. I like the sounds of a profit being at a 90 cent dollar. That could be a "doable" and sustainable number.

That's my feel good story on the beef industry

Saturday, December 8, 2007

Ending stocks still pretty low.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/agoutlook/aotables/2007/10Oct/aotab23.xls

This is old news. BUT just looking at the low ending stock for a lot of these grain makes you see there should be legs to the good prices for a little while yet.

An Ag Scientist Blog Article from Australia


Hey! An ag-blog!
I bookmarked this site a year ago for my old blog.
I read the posted article and I'm going to monitor the site for a while
A note on the drought in Australia. It's nasty as you have all heard. Nothing could show that more than the production numbers coming from there grain sector.

Friday, December 7, 2007

Really Good BioFuel Post: Amber Waves



  • The Future of Biofuels: A Global Perspective - Amber Waves-November 2007



    This post gave me the best perspective on the Bio-fuel industry I have seen so far. All in "plain speak" and covering history of the Brazil industry really helps understand the whole or global picture.


    My other "takeaway" points are;

  • I liked the chart on levels of production country by country ( wish I could have posted that on my blog)

  • The perceived stagnation of Brazil's production

  • Government policy in Brazil laying the groundwork for successful production

  • More in site into the pipeline problems in the States moving this stuff and some solutions suggested

  • How quickly the USA became the world leader here! Brazil started in the 70's and they were passed in no time. And they have large advantages with sugar as a source!

  • I thought Canada could be a player in bio diesel. From the production numbers quoted in the post we are already way behind the States (?)

  • How quickly fossil fuel resources are being developed. I believed that we were developing these at only small increases not the double digit %% quoted here(?)


Other points like problems with biomass fuels and increased food prices I had a good handle on, but this post puts it together quite well and at a level I can understand.



I recommend looking at the post

Global Production Shortfalls Bring Record Wheat Prices - Amber Waves November 2007




Ok so everybody who sells grain knows this story, but it the price chart is interesting to see

Tight Supply and Strong Demand May Raise U.S. Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices- Amber Waves November 2007







After posting the charts on fertilizer price etc. the other day, this Amber Waves story drew my interest


My "takeaways" from the chart are the tiny inventory and what looks to be a actual reduction in supply overall. The dropping US production and the resulting dependence on imports is glaringly illustrated on the chart.


The posted articles statement that world consumption growing by 14% in the past 5 or 6 yrs is going to push prices further. And that will put further pressure on the US import situation

Thursday, December 6, 2007

Fertilizer Numbers

I found the posted spreadsheets from the USDA interesting. I knew that Fertilizer consumpstion in North America had leveled off and that prices had increased in the last few years, but it is interesting to see it charted.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/Tables/Table8.xls Fertilizer Price index numbers camparing fert input and crop income

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/Tables/Table7.xls Price per ton.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/Tables/Table27.xls % Wheat acres fertilized. It's dropped 5% in the last few years(?) Organic?

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/Tables/Table1.xls Tons used. This has leveled off. Fertilizer wholesale businesses have been telling fertilizer retailers this for the last 4 years

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/Tables/FertilizerUse.xls All the spreadsheet in one chart book

Cheez it's after 12. I missed Deadwood and I have to get up and go to work tommorrow. Good night

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

American Field Crop Budget sheets

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/CostsAndReturns/data/Forecast/cop_forecast.xls


Posted link is cost of production spreadsheets for American field crops. Just reading the foot note the cost numbers are based on old numbers but it is interesting. I wonder if there projections took into account the massive cost increases in fuel and fertilizer. I think I will take a hunt for western Canada budgets, they are usually available at regional Ag offices

ERS/USDA Data - Major Land Uses: Map:I love a good map


ERS/USDA Data - Major Land Uses: Map The Map and the link are USDA information on land use.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Cool: A Credit Card to Show Your Support of Agriculture


Supporting Your Local Farmer

CFA - Canadian Federation of Agriculture - A "Grown in Canada" food label

There is amazing support for local produce among consumers. One of the most popular projects our research farm undertook was a farmers market. For a producer, especially a young one, I think these opportunities could put good money in your pocket. We have another project on the backburner to try an raise some garlic for local consumption

http://www.cbc.ca/marketplace/product_of_canada_eh/

This is another post from CBC's marketplace giving the consumer some tips on how to be a local buyer and taking a good rip at the supermarket chains. I can't get to upset with the 'big" chains because they are under a lot of pressure from Walmart going into the grocery business. In the US Walmart has become the biggest grocery seller in the country and in the process has turned the business into a low margin nightmare for there competition. Supermarkets use to be a great business with good margins and steady business in good times and bad, but not any more. It's dog eat dog in this business in the States. Canada has avoided this so far and from what I know Canadian chains are still doing ok. Wow sorry I really got off track there

The Swede Midge — Coming to a Canola Crop Near You


The Swede Midge — A New Pest In Crucifer Crops In Ontario

I've heard a few reports about this new pest damaging canola crop in western Canada. I plan on keeping an eye our for it this year and browsing a bit for more information on the net

Monday, December 3, 2007

Brazil Ag Success Story: And it's not about burning the rain forest


Bringing Spice To A Hot Land Newsweek Giving Globally Newsweek.com

I'm always on the lookout for stories about Brazilian or Australian Ag-production. Mostly because its huge farms and a pioneer feel to the whole thing in both countries. This story is different kind of a third world spin and low tech meets high tech meets gourmet meets peasant farmer. Yes! I know what the heck is this gibberish! I'm going to have to publish some good farmer salt of the earth stuff to make up for all the green and organic urban warrior success stories

Sunday, December 2, 2007

List of vegetable oils - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




A primer for the world of vegetable oil. I'm pretty sure the Canadian Prairies will produce bio diesel out of canola. When you look at this list it seems pretty certain the rest of the world will use what ever is most available in there "backyard"

Cattle Producers Meet with New Ag Minister

Saskatoon Homepage.ca - Its All About Your Community. - New Sask Ag Minister Meets with Livestock Groups on Friday

I've been watching the cattle industry news, because things are so tough there. I hope this article comes to something. The post is about the New Sask. Ag Minister meeting with cattlemen. I'm a little cynical and I'm wishing this isn't a bit of political posturing. It's pretty scary for cattlemen right now. I've talked to several over the last couple of months and I've not heard many good news stories. After the BSE hit there still were a few bright spots. Somebody sold before it hit or even increased there stock because they felt good times were ahead, but nothing good yet out of this downturn. A high dollar, high feed prices and a increasing US herd all spell trouble. I know the industry will survive, but in what form at the other end of this I don't know yet

Saturday, December 1, 2007

More on Ethanol From Corn Stover


DTNAg.com: Agriculture Markets, News and Weather

Just finished watching my son play hockey, poured myself a Kahlua and milk and checked DTN. I noticed another article on corn stover (I posted one earlier today) This one is pretty plain speak. I'm thinking there has to be a trial for us somewhere in here.

3rd World Success Story: Fertilizer (?)


Cellusosic Ethanol Production vs. Soil Organic Matter: Balance


Green Car Congress: Study Raises Concerns Over Amount of Corn Stover Biomass Available for Cellulosic Ethanol


Touted as the "best" solution for Ethanol production, Cellulosic Ethanol methods are getting a lot of research focused on them. I like this investigation calling for more "looks" at how much biomass has to be maintained for organic matter and carbon, while still providing a economic harvest of usable "distilling" material.